“Customers ditched Disney+, Hulu after Kimmel Suspension,” declared the Wall Street Journal Monday. “Disney+ and Hulu cancellations doubled amid Jimmy Kimmel suspension,” declared The Hollywood Reporter.
“Disney+ cancellations jump after Kimmel suspension,” added “The New York Times.”
Was research company Antenna’s finding that both Disney+ and Hulu had their respective subscriber churn rates double in September directly related to one of the month’s biggest news stories — their parent company’s highly controversial suspension and re-instatement of late-night comedian Jimmy Kimmel? Like a lot of things, it’s complicated.
Yes, after a year of having its monthly churn rate hover in the 5% range, Disney-owned Hulu saw a steep and sudden churn spike to 10% in September, according to Antenna, which uses a proprietary mix of opt-in data from banking records and other consumer-facing sources to come up with its findings. Disney+, which largely had churn in the 3-4% range from September 2024 through the summer, saw a sudden churn increase to 8%.
Certainly, given the number of consumer cancellation threats and boycott declarations on social media as the controversy raged last month, the Kimmel kerfuffle had something to do with these stark increases of subscriber departures. According to Antenna, 3 million users cancelled Disney+ in September, up from a previous three-month average of 1.2 million. Hulu experienced 4.1 million customer quits, up from an average of 1.9 million.
It’s also worth mentioning that Disney+ had its biggest signup month since March, adding 2.18 million customers in September. It was the same for Hulu, which also tacked on 2.1 million signups. This could be possibly explained by users who quit in a huff, only to return to the Disney services once the conglomerate backtracked and put Kimmel back on ABC.
Notably, however, all of the major U.S. SVODs, save for the notoriously churn-resistant Netflix, experienced a sudden acceleration in customer departures in the latter part of the summer, as this chart compiled by Next TMT (using Antenna’s data) suggests. Weighted average churn jumped from a three-month average of just under 5% from June-August to 7% in September, Antenna said.
So what’s the cause of that broader churn uptick? Price increases? That could explain why Peacock, which raised its pricing by $3 in July (to $10.99 for ad-supported and $16.99 for ad-free) saw its churn rate jump from a three-month average of just over 6% from May-July to 8% in August and September.
The erstwhile Apple TV+, which also jacked up monthly pricing by $3 (to $12.99) in August, saw its churn rise from a three month average of just over 5% from June-August to 7% in September.
Disney recently raised prices for its various streaming tiers, too, but those increases didn’t take effect until Tuesday.
HBO Max, which hasn’t announced a price increase so far this year, had churn increase from 6% in July to 9% in September. Likewise, Paramount+ — which also still has an inevitable monthly price bump pending — saw a marginal uptick in churn at the end of the summer.
Could football season have something to do with this sudden increase in subscriber volatility? As StreamTV Insider reported Monday, based on new survey data provided by Hub Entertainment Research, 72% of just over 3,800 sports fans surveyed said watching their favorite teams takes priority over not just over content, but other pleasurable things like reading books and listening to podcasts. Many streaming consumers were undoubtedly adjusting their subscription portfolio in late-August/early-September to optimize their access to NFL and college football.
There were also new market entrants — ESPN Unlimited and Fox One — that disrupted the streaming market in late August, possibly convincing come streaming consumers to ditch incumbent SVOD services to tack on the new products